Gross Domestic Product for the 4th quarter 2012

GDP by expenditure component for the fourth quarter of 2012 and the whole year of 2012

• In the fourth quarter of 2012, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 2.5% in real terms over a year earlier, compared with the 1.4% increase in the third quarter of 2012. For 2012 as a whole, GDP increased by 1.4% in real terms over 2011.
• On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 1.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 over the third quarter.
• Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure (PCE) continued to increase by 4.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, after the 2.8% growth in the third quarter. For 2012 as a whole, PCE increased by 4.0% in real terms over 2011.
• Government consumption expenditure (GCE) measured in national accounts terms increased by 3.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, compared with the growth of 4.0% in the third quarter. For 2012 as a whole, GCE increased by 3.7% in real terms over 2011.
• Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GDFCF) increased by 10.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, after the 8.3% growth in the third quarter. For 2012 as a whole, GDFCF increased by 9.1% in real terms over 2011.
• Within the total GDFCF, expenditure on machinery, equipment and intellectual property products increased by 9.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, compared with the 9.9% increase in the third quarter.
• Expenditure on building and construction increased by 12.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 8.1% in the third quarter. Within this category, expenditure on building and construction in respect of the private sector increased by 5.8% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 while that of the public sector registered a strong growth of 24.0%.
• Over the same period, total exports of goods (comprising re-exports and domestic exports) increased by 6.1% in real terms over a year earlier, further improving from the increase of 4.0% in the third quarter of 2012. Likewise, imports of goods increased by 7.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012, expanding from the 4.3% increase in the third quarter. For 2012 as a whole, total exports of goods and imports of goods recorded increases of 1.3% and 2.7% in real terms respectively over 2011.
• Exports of services increased by 1.3% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, as against the 0.6% decrease in the third quarter. Imports of services decreased by 0.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012, after the 0.6% decrease in the third quarter. For 2012 as a whole, total exports of services and imports of services recorded increases of 1.2% and 0.7% in real terms respectively over 2011.
• The implicit price deflator (IPD) of GDP, as a broad measure of overall inflation in the economy, increased by 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, compared with the 4.2% increase in the third quarter. For 2012 as a whole, the IPD of GDP increased by 3.9% over 2011.
• After incorporation of the latest information available, the year-on-year growth of GDP in real terms for the whole year of 2011 remained at 4.9%, while those for the four quarters of 2011 were slightly revised to 7.6%, 5.1%, 4.0% and 3.0% respectively. For the first three quarters of 2012, the real growth rates of GDP were also slightly revised to 0.8%, 1.0% and 1.4% respectively.
• After the implementation of the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) in the GDP framework in September 2012, a new set of trade in goods (TIG) and trade in services (TIS) statistics, compiled based on the change of ownership principle in recording goods sent abroad for processing and merchanting as stipulated in the 2008 SNA, has now become available. The new statistics are presented in Tables 9 and 10 as supplementary tables. For details regarding the background and concepts of the change of ownership principle in the 2008 SNA, please refer to the Special Report on Gross Domestic Product published in September 2012. The TIG and TIS statistics presented in other parts of the report are compiled based on the 2008 SNA standards, other than the change of ownership principle. This special arrangement aims at providing a transition period to allow data users more time to adapt to the new series of TIG and TIS statistics in the GDP framework. Data users should note that the overall GDP level and growth rate remain unchanged after adopting the new TIG and TIS statistics in accordance with the change of ownership principle.

GDP by economic activity for the third quarter of 2012

• The preliminary figures of chain volume measures of GDP by economic activity for the third quarter of 2012, which had been released in late December 2012, were subsequently revised as more data became available.
• The revised figures showed that net output in respect of all the services activities taken together increased by 2.2% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, compared with the 1.5% growth in the second quarter.
• Analysed by constituent services sector and on a year-on-year comparison, net output in the import and export, wholesale and retail trades sector increased by 2.6% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 1.1% in the second quarter. The modest growth in this sector was mainly attributable to the subdued performance in external trade of Hong Kong amid the lacklustre global economy.
• Net output in the financing and insurance sector edged up by 0.3% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, compared with the 0.4% increase in the second quarter. The sluggish performance of the sector continued during the quarter as stock trading and fund raising activities remained generally quiet.
• Net output in the accommodation services (covered hotels, guesthouses, boarding houses and other establishments providing short term accommodation) and food services sector increased by 3.2% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, faster than the 1.8% growth in the second quarter.
• Net output in the transportation, storage, postal and courier services sector increased by 1.7% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, as against the 1.9% drop in the second quarter.
• Net output in the information and communications sector grew by 3.9% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, faster than the 2.1% increase in the second quarter.
• Net output in the real estate, professional and business services sector increased by 3.5% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, following the increase of 4.8% in the second quarter.
• Net output in the public administration, social and personal services sector increased by 3.3% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, compared with the growth of 3.0% in the second quarter.
• As for sectors other than the services sectors, net output in the local manufacturing sector edged down by 0.1% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 from a year earlier, after the 2.9% drop in the second quarter.
• Net output in the electricity, gas and water supply, and waste management sector drop by 0.6% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 from a year earlier, as against the 3.7% growth in the second quarter.
• Net output in the construction sector increased by 5.2% in real terms in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier, compared with the 10.0% growth in the second quarter.

GDP by economic activity at current prices for 2011

• Statistics on GDP by economic activity at current prices, which are compiled mainly based on data collected from the annual economic surveys, are useful for analysis of the contribution of different economic activities to the total GDP.
• The revised figures of GDP by economic activity at current prices for 2011 showed that the import and export, wholesale and retail trades sector accounted for the largest share (25.9%) of the GDP, followed by the public administration, social and personal services sector (16.5%), and the financing and insurance sector (16.1%).

GNI for the third quarter of 2012

• The preliminary figures of Gross National Income (GNI) for the third quarter of 2012, which were released in mid-December 2012, were also revised accordingly based on the revised GDP estimates.
• In the third quarter of 2012, GNI increased by 6.9% over a year earlier to $531.2 billion at current market prices, compared with the 2.5% increase in the second quarter of 2012.
• Compared with GDP, the value of GNI was larger by $7.0 billion in the third quarter of 2012, representing a net external primary income inflow of the same amount, and equivalent to 1.3% of GDP in that quarter.
• After netting out the effect of price changes, real GNI increased by 2.5% in the third quarter of 2012 over a year earlier.
• Total primary income inflow into Hong Kong, estimated at $263.9 billion in the third quarter of 2012 and equivalent to 50.4% of GDP in that quarter, increased by 8.7% over a year earlier. As for the major components of total primary income inflow, direct investment income (DII) increased by 12.8% over a year earlier. Portfolio investment income (PII), other investment income (OII) and income on reserve assets (RA) decreased by 1.5%, 13.6% and 6.6% respectively from a year earlier.
• Total primary income outflow, estimated at $256.9 billion in the third quarter of 2012 and equivalent to 49.0% of GDP in that quarter, increased by 6.3% over a year earlier. Regarding the major components of total primary income outflow, DII and PII increased by 7.5% and 5.6% respectively over a year earlier. OII decreased by 17.5% from a year earlier.
• Taking the inflow and outflow together, a net external primary income inflow of $7.0 billion was recorded in the third quarter of 2012, compared with the net income inflow of $21.1 billion in the second quarter of 2012.