Gross Domestic Product for 1st Quarter 2020
GDP by expenditure component for the first quarter of 2020
- In the first quarter of 2020, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 8.9% in real terms from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP decreased by 5.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2020 when compared with the fourth quarter of 2019.
- Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure decreased by 10.1% in real terms in the first quarter of 2020 from a year earlier, deteriorating from the 2.9% decline in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- Government consumption expenditure measured in national accounts terms grew by 8.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2020 over a year earlier, after the increase of 6.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GDFCF) decreased by 14.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2020 from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 16.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- Within the total GDFCF, expenditure on machinery, equipment and intellectual property products decreased by 18.0% in real terms in the first quarter of 2020 from a year earlier, smaller than the decline of 32.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- On the other hand, expenditure on building and construction in GDFCF dropped by 9.1% in real terms in the first quarter of 2020 from a year earlier, after the decline of 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Within this category, expenditure on building and construction in respect of private and public sectors decreased by 8.9% and 9.3% respectively in real terms in the first quarter of 2020.
- Over the same period, total exports of goods recorded a decline of 9.9% in real terms from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Imports of goods dropped by 11.0% in real terms in the first quarter of 2020, compared with the decline of 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- Exports of services fell significantly by 37.8% in real terms in the first quarter of 2020 from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 24.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Imports of services decreased by 26.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2020, compared with the decrease of 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- The implicit price deflator of GDP, as a broad measure of overall inflation in the economy, increased by 2.8% in the first quarter of 2020 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- The reference year for the chain volume measures of GDP and its components has been revised from 2017 to 2018. Re-referencing affects the levels, but not the rates of change, of the chain volume measures. Apart from re-referencing, the volume estimates for 2019, which were previously valued at 2017 prices, have also been revalued at 2018 prices. This rebasing of the volume measures affects the real growth rates of the annual and quarterly GDP for 2019. These re-referencing and rebasing processes are annual updating exercises following the introduction of the annually re-weighted chain linking approach in compiling the volume measures of GDP.
- As compared with the figures published in the last quarterly report, after incorporation of the latest information available and rebasing of the volume estimates for 2019, the year-on-year rate of change of GDP in real terms for the fourth quarter of 2019 was revised from -2.9% to -3.0%; while those for the first three quarters and the whole year remained unchanged. As compared with the advance estimates released on 4 May 2020, the year-on-year rate of change of GDP in real terms for the first quarter of 2020 remained at the decrease of 8.9%; and the real decline on a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis also remained unchanged.
GDP by economic activity for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the whole year of 2019
- The preliminary figures of chain volume measures of GDP by economic activity for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the whole year of 2019, which had already been released in end March 2020, were subsequently revised as more data became available.
- The revised figures showed that net output in respect of all the services activities taken together decreased by 2.4% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 1.7% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, the net output decreased by 0.3% in real terms for all the services sectors taken together.
- Analysed by constituent services sector and on a year-on-year comparison, net output in the import and export, wholesale and retail trades sector dropped by 8.4% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 from a year earlier, after the decrease of 9.7% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector saw a decrease of 6.2% in real teams, as against the 4.2% growth in 2018. The global economic slowdown and US-Mainland trade tensions dampened trade and investment worldwide and the sharp fall in visitor arrivals in the second half of 2019 took a heavy toll on retail business, leading to a fall in net output of this sector during the year.
- Net output in the financing and insurance sector increased by 2.4% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 over a year earlier, compared with the 3.3% rise in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector rose by 2.8% in real teams, compared with the 4.0% growth in 2018. Trading activities in the stock market were active in early 2019 but quietened down over the course of the year, resulting in a smaller growth compared to the preceding year.
- Net output in the accommodation services (covering hotels, guesthouses, boarding houses and other establishments providing short term accommodation) and food services sector plunged by 23.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 from a year earlier, after the decrease of 14.1% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector decreased by 9.2% in real teams.
- Net output in the transportation, storage, postal and courier services sector decreased further by 8.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 from a year earlier, following the decline of 2.2% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector recorded a decrease of 1.6% in real teams.
- Net output in the information and communications sector increased by 2.8% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 over a year earlier, compared with the growth of 5.4% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector rose by 4.7% in real terms.
- Net output in the real estate, professional and business services sector recorded a marginal increase of 0.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 0.5% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector increased by 1.0% in real teams.
- Net output in the public administration, social and personal services sector rose by 2.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 over a year earlier, compared with the growth of 2.0% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector increased by 2.9% in real terms.
- As for sectors other than the services sectors, net output in the local manufacturing sector dropped by 0.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 from a year earlier, as against the increase of 0.5% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector rose by 0.4% in real teams.
- Net output in the electricity, gas and water supply, and waste management sector decreased by 1.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 from a year earlier, as against the increase of 1.5% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector registered a marginal decrease of 0.2% in real teams.
- Net output in the construction sector decreased by 6.6% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019 from a year earlier, after the decrease of 2.5% in the third quarter. For 2019 as a whole, net output in this sector decreased by 6.0% in real terms.
GNI for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the whole year of 2019
- The preliminary figures of Gross National Income (GNI) for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the whole year of 2019, which were released in end-March 2020, were also revised accordingly based on the revised GDP estimates.
- In the fourth quarter of 2019, GNI decreased by 0.6% from a year earlier to $767.1 billion at current market prices, same as that in the third quarter of 2019.
- Measured at current market prices, the value of GNI was larger than GDP by $22.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, representing a net external primary income inflow of the same amount, and equivalent to 3.1% of GDP in that quarter.
- After netting out the effect of price changes, real GNI decreased by 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2019 from a year earlier.
- Total primary income inflow into Hong Kong, estimated at $383.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019 and equivalent to 51.5% of GDP in that quarter, increased by 0.6% over a year earlier. As for the major components of total primary income inflow, direct investment income (DII) and portfolio investment income (PII) increased by 2.0% and 9.2% respectively over a year earlier. Other investment income (OII) and income on reserve assets decreased by 15.5% and 3.2% respectively from a year earlier.
- Total primary income outflow, estimated at $360.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019 and equivalent to 48.4% of GDP in that quarter, decreased by 0.7% from a year earlier. Regarding the major components of total primary income outflow, DII increased by 1.7% over a year earlier. PII and OII decreased by 0.5% and 16.3% respectively from a year earlier.
- Taking the inflow and outflow together, a net external primary income inflow of $22.9 billion was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019, compared with the net income inflow of $41.3 billion in the third quarter of 2019.
- For 2019 as a whole, GNI increased by 1.5% over a year earlier to $3,013.8 billion at current market prices. The difference of $148.2 billion from GDP for the same year represented a net external primary income inflow of the same amount and equivalent to 5.2% of GDP in that year. The total primary income inflow was estimated at $1,670.6 billion, or 58.3% of GDP in 2019 while the corresponding outflow at $1,522.5 billion, or 53.1% of GDP in 2019. After netting out the effect of price changes, GNI decreased by 1.2% in real terms in 2019 from 2018.
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