Updated Hong Kong population projections released (with video)
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     The Hong Kong population is projected to reach 8.89 million in 30 years' time, according to an updated set of population projections released by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) today (July 29).

     "Population projections provide a common basis for the Government in planning public services and facilities.  They are regularly updated to take account of information on the latest developments of the population," the Commissioner for Census and Statistics, Mr Fung Hing-wang, said.

     In the updated set of projections, the Hong Kong Resident Population is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.8%, from 7 million in mid-2009 to 8.89 million in mid-2039.  The annual growth rate is projected to be stable at about 0.8%-1.0% for the next 20 years.  But with an increased number of deaths upon ageing of the population, the annual growth rate is projected to slacken to 0.5% towards the end of the projection period.

     Over the entire period from mid-2009 to mid-2039, the overall population is projected to increase by 1.89 million.  There is a natural increase (i.e. births less deaths) of 1.05 million and a net movement (i.e. inflow less outflow) of 0.84 million.

     Within the Hong Kong Resident Population, the number of Usual Residents is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.8% from 6.80 million in mid-2009 to 8.63 million in mid-2039, and the number of Mobile Residents at a similar rate of 0.9% from 206,000 to 265,900.

     Mr Fung said: "The population is expected to remain on an ageing trend.  The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to rise markedly, from 13% in 2009 to 28% in 2039.  The pace of population ageing is projected to be gradual up to around 2019 (when the proportion will reach 17%), then accelerating in the following 10 years (where the proportion will be 25% in 2029), and moderating in the last 10 years of the projection period.  Meanwhile, the proportion of the population aged under 15 is projected to be between 11% to 13% throughout the entire projection period."

     The ageing trend is also revealed by the increasing median age of the population, from 40.7 in 2009 to 47.6 in 2039.

     The sex ratio (i.e. the number of males per 1,000 females) of the population is projected to fall noticeably, from 889 in 2009 to 744 in 2039.  There will be variations in the sex ratio by age group.  In particular, the sex ratio for the age group 25-44 is expected to be much affected by the presence of foreign domestic helpers comprising mostly younger females.  Also relevant is the continued entry of One-way Permit Holders in the coming years, many being Hong Kong men's wives living on the Mainland.  Making reference to data which exclude foreign domestic helpers, the sex ratio of the population is projected to be higher, but still will come down from 955 in 2009 to 804 in 2039.

     Significant characteristics of the population for selected years are shown in Table 1 and the components of population growth are shown in Table 2.

     The "component method", which is commonly used internationally, is adopted for making the population projections.  Under this method, the population of a base year is brought forward by age and sex under separate projections of fertility, mortality and movement, year after year until the end of the projection period.  As in the last round, births in Hong Kong to Mainland women and their intention of stay in Hong Kong have been taken into account in this updated set of population projections.

     Mr Fung said: "Statistical studies using modelling methods as far as possible are made on past trends and recent developments pertaining to the socio-economic conditions in Hong Kong to generate the fertility, mortality and movement assumptions.

     "Where government policies are involved, it is taken that existing policies will continue to apply.  For example, the existing policy of a daily quota of 150 One-way Permit Holders entering Hong Kong from the Mainland is taken to apply in the projection period," he added.

     A publication, "Hong Kong Population Projections 2010-2039", on the detailed projection results, along with the projection methodology and assumptions, is now available for sale.

     Another publication, "Hong Kong Life Tables 2004-2039", describing the present and future mortality conditions of Hong Kong in the form of life tables is also available for sale from today.  Apart from presenting the life tables, the publication also describes the method of constructing a life table.

     Users can download the above publications free of charge at C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp).

     The print version of the publications are available for sale: "Hong Kong Population Projections 2010-2039" at $44 per issue and "Hong Kong Life Tables 2004-2039" at $52 per issue.  Purchase can be made in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong; tel: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp).  The print version of the publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).

     Enquiries about more detailed statistics can be directed to the department's Demographic Statistics Section (tel: 2716 8044 or email: population@censtatd.gov.hk).

Ends/Thursday, July 29, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:10

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Attachments
Table 1: Significant Characteristics of the Population for Selected Years/Table 2: Components of Population Growth

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