Statistics Advisory Board reviews government statistical work *******************************************************
The Statistics Advisory Board held a regular meeting on May 14 (Tuesday) to review the main lines of government statistical work and its recent developments.
Members of the Board were briefed in detail of the results of the population projections recently released for the period 2002 to 2031 and the methodology and assumptions adopted in compiling the projections. They were aware that statistical studies using modelling methods had been performed on the past trends and recent developments pertaining to the socio-economic conditions in Hong Kong to generate the assumptions. And, where Government policies were involved, the projections had been compiled assuming that the existing policies would continue to apply.
Members realised that the projection results had revealed two major trends, viz. continuous aging of the population and falling of the sex ratio. The former resulted from a low fertility rate and mortality rate during the projection period. The latter was due to several factors, including the continued entry of One-Way Permit holders with a high proportion of females, longer life expectation of women than men and the presence of a considerable number of foreign domestic helpers comprising mostly younger females.
"Generally the population projections are updated at intervals of two to three years : one following each population census or by-census and another round during the intercensal years. The population projections provide a common basis for Government planning in various programme areas such as education, housing and social and health services. This apart, they also provide useful information to the private sector in planning their businesses," said Mr Frederick Ho, Commissioner for Census and Statistics and Chairman of the Statistics Advisory Board.
Members were also updated with the progress of compiling consumption expenditure statistics of Hong Kong residents making personal travel to the mainland of China. Published for the first time last year for the year 2000, such statistics were useful for analyzing the economic impact of cross-boundary consumption on the local economy. In compiling the 2001 statistics, additional analysis of the socio-economic characteristics of such cross-boundary trip makers and analysis on their consumption expenditure by mode of transport had been made. Moreover, quarterly patterns had also been analysed. A feature article presenting the 2001 statistics would be published in the May 2002 issue of the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics.
In response to Members' suggestions, the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) would consider conducting further in-depth analyses on cross-boundary consumption expenditure statistics, such as analyses by length of stay.
The Board was informed of C&SD's plan for changing the Half-yearly Business Prospects Survey (HBPS) into a Quarterly Business Tendency Survey in line with the recommendations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). With improved survey frequency and adoption of OECD's model questionnaires, it was expected that faster and more accurate survey results with improved predictive power on changes in business performance could be obtained.
Members welcomed the plan and advised that effort should be made to secure persons at senior management level in the selected respondent firms for interview since they should have better grasp of expected changes in business performance than staff at middle rank.
"Consultations with potential respondents on the proposed questionnaires and a pretest survey will be conducted later in the year. If everything turns out to be successful, the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey will be conducted as from January 2003", said Mr Ho.
At the meeting, the Board also reviewed other statistical developments since the last meeting, including progress of development of information database for studies related to Hong Kong and Pearl River Delta, various tasks relating to updating the manpower projections and planned release of the first set of International Investment Position statistics and External Debt statistics by end June 2002.
The Statistics Advisory Board is a non-statutory advisory body which advises the Commissioner for Census and Statistics on matters pertaining to official statistics work. The terms of reference and composition of the Board can be found on C&SD Website (http://www.info.gov.hk/censtatd/eng/aboutus/index3.html). Agenda of the recent meetings together with the press releases on key issues discussed are also uploaded there.
End/ Wednesday, May 15, 2002 NNNN |