The Statistics Advisory Board reviewed the main lines of government statistical work and its recent developments at a regular meeting on 18 November.

The Statistics Advisory Board is a non-statutory advisory body which advises the Commissioner for Census and Statistics on matters pertaining to official statistics work.

"The Statistics Advisory Board meets regularly and provides very useful advice on government statistical work," said Mr Frederick Ho, Commissioner for Census and Statistics and Chairman of the Statistics Advisory Board.

"We will continue to inform the public from time to time of the major issues discussed by the Board."

The Board reviewed the statistical activities and developments undertaken since the previous meeting held in early June 1999.

It also considered several specific items at the meeting. These included Y2K readiness in the Census and Statistics Department (with up-to-date progress report on internal audit on Y2K compliance and contingency planning); preparation for the 2001 Population Census; release of deseasonalized data series; implementation of Electronic Data Interchange for trade declarations and cargo manifests; and implications of electronic commerce for statistical work.

Statistical Activities and Developments (May - October 1999)

The Board reviewed the statistical activities and developments undertaken by the Government Statistical Service during May to October 1999. The Government Statistical Service comprises the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) and statistical units established in various government departments and policy bureaux. Following are the more important items noted and discussed by the Board:

*Regarding the compilation of Balance of Payments (BoP) account, the Survey of External Claims, Liabilities and Income was launched in May 1999 to collect the required data for compiling the detailed components of the financial account. The first set of complete detailed BoP account for the reference year of 1998 and the four reference quarters of 1999 would be available by June 2000.

*Detailed findings of the enquiry on "Hong Kong residents with spouses/children in the Mainland of China" conducted from March to May 1999 were published in the Special Topics Report No. 22 in July 1999. The enquiry provided estimates of the number of Mainland children born to Hong Kong residents and still living in the Mainland. Owing to the wide interest on the subject, the survey findings received much attention from different sectors of the community.

*To enhance the capacity of C&SD in collecting socio-economic data requested by other government departments and policy bureaux, a new series of Omnibus Surveys (OS) had been launched. With this new series of household surveys, topics of particular interest to individual government departments/policy bureaux would be grouped together under one survey operation. Conduct of the OS would be contracted out to a private firm with costs proportionately shared out by the sponsoring departments/bureaux. C&SD would be responsible for coordinating relevant arrangements and for monitoring the progress of the operation and the quality of the deliverable. Concurrently, topics of wide, general interest would continue to be included as special topic enquiries in the General Household Survey.

*A fresh round of the Household Expenditure Survey had been launched to collect up-to-date information on the expenditure patterns of households for updating the weighting system of the Consumer Price Indices. The survey period would last for 12 months from October 1999 to September 2000.

*The timeliness of releasing a number of statistical series would be enhanced in 2000. The more noteworthy one would be quarterly Gross Domestic Product, which would be released with a time lag of 1.8 months as from the first quarter of 2000, as compared with 2.7 months in 1999.

Enhancing Y2K Readiness in C&SD - Internal Audit on Y2K Compliance and Contingency Planning

The Board noted that C&SD was Y2K ready. All computer systems had been rectified and tested to be Y2K compliant by mid May 1999, ahead of the government target completion date of end June 1999. A Y2K Contingency Plan, which took a business survival perspective and covered all business functions of the Department, had been formulated. Currently, implementation of preventive and preparatory measures outlined in the plan was underway.

The Board was informed that an independent Internal Audit programme had also been instituted to further enhance the assurance of the Department's Y2K readiness. In the programme, rectified computer systems were revisited and completed work was reviewed to ensure that there was no oversight.

Preparing for the 2001 Population Census

The Board noted that the 2001 Population Census (01C) would be conducted during 15-27 March 2001. Meanwhile, detailed preparatory work was in full swing.

Board members noted that valuable findings had been obtained from the small-scale test survey conducted during June-September 1999, which tested among other things, question wording, formatting and sequencing of the data topics to be included in the 01C. They welcomed that further consultation would be conducted to seek experts' views on the questioning approach and proposed definition and classification of data so that the data collected in due course could meet users' needs well. Furthermore, they also noted that a Pre-test Survey of a scale larger than that of the small-scale test survey would be conducted in early 2000 to thoroughly test the various aspects of the 01C.

Board members were informed that the data collection method used in the 1991 Population Census (i.e. "mail + self-enumeration + enumerator collection" for the short forms and "interviewer method" for the long forms) would be adopted in the 01C. They were pleased to note that fine-tuning of the method, such as designing more user-friendly self-enumeration form, would be made to better assure the quality of the data collected.

On data processing, the Board appreciated that new technologies would be adopted in various aspects, such as using digital maps, automated data capturing of forms and disseminating statistics in electronic form. Such applications of new technologies would help increase the efficiency of the operation and availability of results of the 01C.

Release of Deseasonalized Data Series

Board members noted that deseasonalized series of quarterly Gross Domestic Product, value and volume indices of monthly retail sales, and monthly trade values and trade indices had been released. As seasonal effects had been removed, the deseasonalized data enabled the underlying trend to be more clearly discerned. Members welcomed the availability of such data and supported the release of more such data.

Implementation of Electronic Data Interchange for Trade Declarations and Cargo Manifests

Board members were updated with the progress of the implementation of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) in respect of trade declarations and cargo manifests.

The EDI service for submission of trade declarations had been launched in April 1997. So far implementation had been smooth. By October 1999, the proportion of trade declarations submitted by EDI had increased to 75%, including 10% through the Electronic Trading Access Service (ETAS). The progress was satisfactory, heading towards the target of 100% trade declarations being submitted by direct EDI or through ETAS by April 2000.

On the development of EDI service for submission of cargo manifests, Board members were informed that the funding of the project had been approved by the Finance Committee of the Legislative Council in July 1999. System development for the project was scheduled to be completed by mid 2001.

Implications of Electronic Commerce for Statistical Work

The Board was informed that C&SD had completed a preliminary study on the implications of electronic commerce, or EC in short, for its statistical work.

Results of the study revealed that at the present stage, the extent of business via EC was still relatively limited, so was its impact on the statistical systems. However, in view of the great potential in the development of EC and the fast speed it was developing, Board members agreed that it was imperative for systematic methods and solutions to be established very soon in the near future. They supported that C&SD should keep track of the development and continue to enhance its understanding of the subject. Moreover, they concurred that joint efforts with international statistical agencies and statistical authorities elsewhere would be required to tackle the various conceptual and practical issues involved.